[scoutmarch16]

Hi,

My husband and I have a LID date of 04-10-07 and are hoping to adopt a little girl from China sometime in the not so distant future.

We're going through a well-known adoption agency (which is only 25 minutes from where we live) and though we like this agency, we've not been able to get even a rough estimate from them on how much longer our wait will be until we get a referral.

With a LID of 04-10-07 we've already been waiting 2 years and 7 months for a referral and are wondering how much longer our wait will be.

At the China Adoption Forecast.com site, the predicted referral date for us is 2017-03-03 which would give us another 7 ½ years of waiting. Apparently, this website calculated this referral date based on the fact that China has 378 days of dossiers to be processed before they get to our dossier and they’re currently only processing about 2.9 days of dossiers each month.

I found out this week that our adoption agency is still accepting new applicants who want to adopt from China and that these families are being told that their average wait time will be about 44 months until a referral. If this estimate is accurate for new families just applying then those of us who’ve been waiting for over 2 ½ years (after LID) should be getting a referral in under 3 years, right?

Is the China Adoption Forecast website considered an accurate assessment tool? If so, we’re going to have to wait another 7 ½ years until a referral

Any input would be appreciated.

Thanks.

Christine

[KarenInCa]

That forecaster is way on the outside of the spectrum. It forecasts based SOLELY on the recent couple of years. If they were to use a predictor based on the entire amount of years that China has been adopting, IMO it would be more accurate. There are trends and ebs and flows to everything.
I certainly do not assume that the wait will go to where it was when we waited for our first daughter (6-10 month waits when we applied for her 3-4 years ago) But I also do not expect that the current wait for you (or us) will be till 2017 either.
Currently, China is on LIDs from late March 2006. So, expecting a wait of another half year from now is also not a good expectation. To do that, China would have to go from 2-6 day LIDs to 60 day LIDs. Even at it's peak, it never went above 1 month LID referrals at a time.
I think the info you're getting from your agency is a bit misleading. No one can really predict the wait times, and to put an estimated time of that short on their info is a disservice to potential clients. We're not looking for false hope, and anything less than the truth right now can be very damaging to so many hearts.

[scoutmarch16]

Karen,

Thanks so much for the information. It's good to get other's perspective on these disheartening forecasts.

I hope that these forecasts aren't at all accurate since I don't want to wait until 2017 for a referral

We're currently looking into possibly also adopting from Taiwan but have been told that the Infant Programs are on hold at the current time since the wait for a NSN female infant (newborn to 2 years old) is now 24 to 28 months (which seems like nothing compared to China's wait).

If we can't get into the Taiwan Infant Program during the next year maybe we'll try to adopt a SN child.

All the different rules and obstacles that these Programs put you through are so frustrating and disheartening that we may even have to think about using other options to build our family.

Thanks again