[tbrown0428]

HI EVERYBODY! I have been away from the board for a while because I have been a little depressed about the wait we have in store for us with our current LID of June 2007. Does anybody out there have a guesstimate of when we may possibly see a referral? How about when we may even be in the Review Room? My DH tells me he is thinking we will be in China in 2010 but as much as I would love to believe this I feel it will be 2012 with the backlogged dossiers. I am trying to stay optimistic and will wait as long as we can but just hope that nothing happens and they don't for some reason close China for IA in the future.

[KarenInCa]

Last I heard, the referrals were to January 10, 2006. I have no idea how far the reviews have gotten, since CCAA took it off their site.
We're LID April 2007. We fully expect it to be another two years before we receive a referral. I've heard a rumor that CCAA expects to just get thru February 2006 this year, and then possibly speed up after this year is done.

Anyone know how far the reviews have gotten?

[jessibird]

I just know what our agency has on their China blog page as of 4/7/08:

"CCAA portal box updated this morning to reflect referrals matched through January 9, 2006. CCAA advanced five days for referrals since last month; January 4, 2006-January 9, 2006."

[nancy91299]

My DH and I were thinking it would be sometime in 2010 for us. We're logged in as of April. Who knows though

[Leilani's Mom]

From China Adoption forcast website:
China has 533 days of dossiers to be processed before they get to your dossier. China currently processes about 5-7 days of dossiers each month.
If China did all future referrals at the exact same speed as they did this month: 2017-11-17
Our best guess - a weighted average of recent CCAA velocities, guessing that CCAA will perform about as well in the future as they are performing now, but might return to previous trends: 2013-02-02
That's our best guess for when you might receive your referral. Just at a guess, we can suppose that the CCAA either speeds up or slows down significantly, and show you those dates. If they speed up: 2010-09-10. And if they slow down: 2017-12-27.

Sorry this doesn't look so good, I hope it is on the speedier side for you!

[Kaijinsbigsis]

Last time our agency told us anything (my Mom is a regional office for them) the wait was at 27 months right now...with no real sign of speading up. I'd say at best late 2009, but probably more like 2010. At best. Sad but true.

[jbruhn]

We just attended an adoption conference this past weekend held by our large china only agency. Our LID is 9/26/06 and we specifically asked when they think we will receive a referral. They told us that we would have a three year wait. That would be the fall of 2009 for us. Personally, I am not that optimistic. I'm thinking it will not be until the summer of 2010 for us.

[PiperH]

Hey Julie,

Were you in Chicago? If so, we were there, too.

The wait is a killer Tbrown, and all you can do is just what you did, step away when it gets too much and come back and comfort others (or get some comfort) when you can.

I know what agency you are with, and they have said there was a logjam of increased dossiers in late 2005 and early 2006 and maybe when March gets through there will be a speed up for awhile. They really are hoping that, but whether they are right or not remains to be seen. At the rate of the referrals now, it is hard to see March 2006 ever being history. But it will, and the wait will decrease eventually.

Violet

[Leilani's Mom]

Being a part of that monster Marching Panda month of 2006, we would be thrilled to get our referrals soon and get out of your way!

[chinaadoptforecaster]

Hi, I guess that during your wait to referral, the CCAA will match an average 9 days per month. My guess on a 6/26/2007 LID is a referral date of 8/4/2010

[Trace7]

This is just my personal opinion, but I think the CCAA will get through maybe March and April and possibly some of May of 2006 next year, and then possibly June, July and August in 2010. So at that rate, I think 2012 is what you may be facing - but then again, all I have to go on is gut feeling and what I have seen happen since 2005. Hopefully I am wrong and things turn around.

I know it is hard.

[KarenInCa]

Trace- I think you're right in your predictions, assuming that everyone logged in stays logged in. But, knowing that there is a lot of attrition via SN program switches and leaving the NSN China program over the next couple of years, due to pregnancies and/or other adoption avenues; I think by the time it actually gets to June,July,August 06 referrals- there will be many less families to match....many less.
I'm not sure, but it seems that at least 1/3 of the waiting families in April 07 yahoo group have left the NSN China program and of those that chose to switch to SN, many are either are already home or waiting for TA right now.
Because of that, I think it will be less than 2012,but I'd rather count on it being 2012 with a surprise than count on it being 2010 with a disappointment.