[Happy2Bhere]

My agency just sent me an email that said the referral time frame for people with our LID is still unknown, but it is guestimated at 24-36 months.
Seems more like the 36 PLUS month time frame to me.
Is this about right?
I have been telling everyone October of 09 for a referral time frame- so everyone kind of knows it will be about 3 years from LID. If it's earlier- super, but seems like that is a REALISTIC time frame.
Haven't been on the forum lately, so just wondered if this was still what people were thinking for referrals.
Thanks in advance,
Melissa

[monami7]

I would say if you are starting now expect 4 - 5 years. I think 3 is around when you will recieve yours. But I would not be surprised at longer either. They took 6 months to do 2 months recently.
Heidi

[mom2asianqts]

I just wanted to wish all good luck. Iy's hard and heart breaking to see how long referrals are taking now. Keep the faith, it will happen

Mom to Sarah from Shanghai,PRC- home 10/5/95 and Jade from Cambodia-Home 6/1/01

[KarenInCa]

I talked with my agency director yesterday and she said that she still will not predict beyond 24 months wait. She seems to be fairly confident in this.
It's a small agency, so I don't know if that means she has stronger ties to someone that would be in the know or weaker ties. But, she absolutely does not believe it will go beyond a 24 month wait.
She also said that it will all be dependent on how China reacts to the 08 Olympics. It's very possible that they keep more babies in China and wait for the tourists to die down before the referrals become more stable.

[skingspan]

It is always surprising to me when an agency says that they don't expect the wait to get beyond a certain number a months. We are coming up on 20 months since LID and expect to wait at least 24 months. When the wait first started creeping up agencies were saying that the wait wouldnt get longer than a year. Then it was, it won't get longer than 18 months. Now we are hearing that the imaginary limit is 24 months. Logically it just doesn't make sense. In order for the wait to stop increasing they would have to start referring full months and from what we hear in China there are less babies being abandoned and more domestic adoption happening so the there are just not enough paper ready babies available. I do think that eventually the wait time will stabalize. Once they get through all of the LIDs before the new May 2007 rules I think there is a chance that they could start referring full months. But by that time the wait could easily have creeped up to 3, 4 or 5 years. Add in the effects of the olympics and it only gets worse. I really hope I am wrong and the wait does stay at 2 years but I just don't see it happening. Sorry for my long winded vent but I think people need to realistically set their expectations.

[Trace7]

Our agency has consistently always said "the wait is currently X, and we expect it to continue to lengthen". They always say they will tell us if and when they get a better idea of the length, but if course they have no idea. I think thay "unending wait time" they have always stated has helped me believe and know that the wait would be longer than I could imagine - and it has been.

So - I think the wait will get to 24-36 months (since it is already at 21+ months and has consitently grown each month over the past 2 years), and I think it could go beyond that as well.

To put it in perspective, I often look at a year ago. On 8/24/06, the CCAA released referrals for the dates of 7/14-7/22/05. Now here it is a year later - and they have not yet gotten to 11/22/05 (but they will next week - finally).

So, in one year's time, they covered only 4 months of referrals.

[KarenInCa]

skingspan-
I know I've fallen before with believing the wait wouldnt be longer than expected. And if it does go beyond 24 months, I won't be surprised.
However, a few things to keep in mind. I think there will be more attrition than before, with the wait times. I also think that the concept of not as many babies is not as true as we have been lead to believe. It's only my own speculation, but I really think that China preparing for the Olympics (and not wanting to draw attention to the SWIs and IA) is the real cause for the slow down. I have nothing to show to prove that, but I really believe it.
With our first daughter, we requested an older toddler. She was an older toddler, among a mix of older toddlers and younger babies that were referred to others at that time. It was a large mix of referrals, even for those that requested AYAP, the chances were high that someone would get an older toddler.
But look back on the last few months of referrals. They've been mostly very young babies. What happened to all the toddlers and older toddlers? If there were really less children available, it would seem to me that there would be more older toddlers referred, and not more younger babies referred, than before, or at least the ratio would be the same as it was. The referrals are less, but statistically, there are more babies than toddlers referred. This does not make sense to me, on many levels, if there are LESS adoptable children than before.
Surely, if domestic adoptions are on the rise as high as we've been lead to believe, it would seem logical that those adopting in China would want the younger babies, and that would leave mostly the older toddlers for IA. But if you look back on the recent several months, that doesn't seem to be the case. There are less referrals, but mostly they are young babies (under 12 months old-and a lot of them around 7 months). But that was not the case just a year and a half ago when there were more referrals.
I just have a really difficult time believing that there are LESS children that are adoptable than a year and a half ago, when we adopted our first daughter. If nothing else, all the babies that got passed up then (when our daughter was adopted at 16 months old), would be adoptable now as older toddlers. Even though it's taken a year to get like this, if it were true, the timeline to get to this point would be much slower progress. But it's as if the IA adoption pool in China dried up overnight.

[monami7]

Rory was 6 months on referral day and is only 7 months and 3 weeks now. She is very young!

[Kdall]

I really hope the wait does not go longer than 3yrs. Having dealt with years of infertility treatments, we chose China due to the stabiltiy of the program and the culture which we find fascinating. I'm 35 and DH is 39, we are not getting any younger and my DH is really bothered by possibly being a 1st time dad at 43/44yrs old. I am praying somehow the wait times do not increase.

[Eve W]

My husband and I also worry about the wait and being older first-time parents. I am 43 soon and my husband is 48. We are hoping for November 2007 LID. We are ok with 2 year wait to catch up on my school and some bills before our daughter arrives. We are thinking now about a back-up adoption plan in another country.

Eve

[Norsk]

The agency we'll most likely sign up with proclaims 1-2 year wait if starting the process now..
(assuming it takes about a year to get a LID)
They say they expect many people to switch programs because of the long wait .. and for waiting times to go down as soon as May 1st 2007 has been reached..

[dragthor]

Well... maybe the new rules will speed things up.

[lovemybulldog]

Originally Posted by Kdall

I really hope the wait does not go longer than 3yrs. Having dealt with years of infertility treatments, we chose China due to the stabiltiy of the program and the culture which we find fascinating. I'm 35 and DH is 39, we are not getting any younger and my DH is really bothered by possibly being a 1st time dad at 43/44yrs old. I am praying somehow the wait times do not increase.

I think many of us have gone through a personal loss or struggle at some point prior to (or during) or adoption plan, so I feel your pain. I personally don't think we'll know how far the wait will go until after the Olympics. I think current LID predictions will be close to or at the 3 year mark by summer, considering there are a few big months in 2006 still to be tackled. Since you're just about to be DTC(congrats, BTW!), I hope your agency is being honest with you that the wait will most likely continue to lengthen for some time.

I still consider China one of the (if not THE) most stable program. By stable, I'm not considering wait times. I'm considering the fact that we know what to expect. 1+1=2, even if we have to do a connect the dots, word jumble, logic puzzle, and Sudoku puzzle first to get there... the path is the same for everyone. Most other programs can't say that. China isn't closing and doesn't appear to be headed in that direction, which speaks volumes compared to what is happening in other parts of the world right now.

I might also suggest that if your agency has a SN/WC program, and your DH is concerned primarily about the wait, that you sit down with your coordinator and discuss what SN means in the China Adoption program and what your family might be equipped to parent. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised at what you'll learn about your own personal capabilities as a future parent. I went from "no way, Jose" to "I wouldn't have it anyother way, Jose"... and we'll be in the first week of our trip exactly one year after starting our paperchase!