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Hi:
There IS an increased risk for adopted away children of a schizophrenic parent to develop schizophbrenia. I don't know the exact number but it is far from a given. If you like, I can try to find out and write back on Monday. The risk that the child will devlop schizophrenia increases if he/she is raised in an "bizarre" (disordered communication) adoptive home.
I do know that for identical twins, the concordance rate for schizophrenia is about .4 (meaning 40% of the time, both twins develop schizophrenia). If the disease were completely genetic, then the concordance rate would be 1.0. (The exact cause of schizophrenia is unknown).
Honestly, I don't know what I'd do in your situation. I would try to find out more info about the birth mother's family history of mental illness. If there are other close relatives with schizophrenia (or any of the related disorders - schizoaffective, schizophreniform, schizotypal, schizoid) it would increase the risk to the child.
Also, and I hope this isn't more information than you were wanting -- Schizophrenia is an incredibly heterogeneous (broad) disorder -- meaning, the many possible symptoms cluster in so many different ways so that two people with the disorder might appear to have no common symptoms. Because of this, it can be misdiagnosed. Sometimes, the manic phases of bipolar disorder can look like schizophrenia (as well as the related disorders I listed above).
Best of luck to you in making this difficult decision.
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