[KarenInCa]

skingspan-
I know I've fallen before with believing the wait wouldnt be longer than expected. And if it does go beyond 24 months, I won't be surprised.
However, a few things to keep in mind. I think there will be more attrition than before, with the wait times. I also think that the concept of not as many babies is not as true as we have been lead to believe. It's only my own speculation, but I really think that China preparing for the Olympics (and not wanting to draw attention to the SWIs and IA) is the real cause for the slow down. I have nothing to show to prove that, but I really believe it.
With our first daughter, we requested an older toddler. She was an older toddler, among a mix of older toddlers and younger babies that were referred to others at that time. It was a large mix of referrals, even for those that requested AYAP, the chances were high that someone would get an older toddler.
But look back on the last few months of referrals. They've been mostly very young babies. What happened to all the toddlers and older toddlers? If there were really less children available, it would seem to me that there would be more older toddlers referred, and not more younger babies referred, than before, or at least the ratio would be the same as it was. The referrals are less, but statistically, there are more babies than toddlers referred. This does not make sense to me, on many levels, if there are LESS adoptable children than before.
Surely, if domestic adoptions are on the rise as high as we've been lead to believe, it would seem logical that those adopting in China would want the younger babies, and that would leave mostly the older toddlers for IA. But if you look back on the recent several months, that doesn't seem to be the case. There are less referrals, but mostly they are young babies (under 12 months old-and a lot of them around 7 months). But that was not the case just a year and a half ago when there were more referrals.
I just have a really difficult time believing that there are LESS children that are adoptable than a year and a half ago, when we adopted our first daughter. If nothing else, all the babies that got passed up then (when our daughter was adopted at 16 months old), would be adoptable now as older toddlers. Even though it's taken a year to get like this, if it were true, the timeline to get to this point would be much slower progress. But it's as if the IA adoption pool in China dried up overnight.