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The time from LID (Log-In-Date) to referral is currently almost a year, but it has been slowing down significantly in the past 6 months or so, to the point that I wouldn't assume that 1 year is a certainty. Paperwork times vary greatly. For example, we started our paperwork in June 2005 and sailed through everything but had to wait on our I-171h which we didn't get until the end of October (resulting in a LID in early December). That's a fluke though, as some people get their I-171h much more quickly, but others take more time to get through the dossier.
I am also not sure about the age restrictions for China, hopefully someone else here will know about that. Hope that helps, at least a little!
BTW, I am so sorry for the domestic adoption that fell through. That must be heartwrenching and I am just so sorry you had that experience.
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